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Accurate electricity demand forecast plays a key role in sustainable power systems. It enables better decision making in the planning of electricity generation and distribution for many use cases. The electricity demand data can often be represented in a hierarchical structure. For example, the electricity consumption of a whole country could be disaggregated by states, cities, and households. Hierarchical forecasts require not only good prediction accuracy at each level of the hierarchy, but also the consistency between different levels. State-of-the-art hierarchical forecasting methods usually apply adjustments on the individual level forecasts to satisfy the aggregation constraints. However, the high-dimensionality of the unpenalized regression problem and the estimation errors in the high-dimensional error covariance matrix can lead to increased variability in the revised forecasts with poor prediction performance. In order to provide more robustness to estimation errors in the adjustments, we present a new hierarchical forecasting algorithm that computes sparse adjustments while still preserving the aggregation constraints. We formulate the problem as a high-dimensional penalized regression, which can be efficiently solved using cyclical coordinate descent methods. We also conduct experiments using a large-scale hierarchical electricity demand data. The results confirm the effectiveness of our approach compared to state-of-the-art hierarchical forecasting methods, in both the sparsity of the adjustments and the prediction accuracy. The proposed approach to hierarchical forecasting could be useful for energy generation including solar and wind energy, as well as numerous other applications.
Improving road safety is critical for the sustainable development of cities. A road safety map is a powerful tool that can help prevent future traffic accidents. However, accurate mapping requires accurate data collection, which is both expensive and labor intensive. Satellite imagery is increasingly becoming abundant, higher in resolution and affordable. Given the recent successes deep learning has achieved in the visual recognition field, we are interested in investigating whether it is possible to use deep learning to accurately predict road safety directly from raw satellite imagery. To this end, we propose a deep learning-based mapping approach that leverages open data to learn from raw satellite imagery robust deep models able to predict accurate city-scale road safety maps at an affordable cost. To empirically validate the proposed approach, we trained a deep model on satellite images obtained from over 647 thousand traffic-accident reports collected over a period of four years by the New York city Police Department. The best model predicted road safety from raw satellite imagery with an accuracy of 78%. We also used the New York city model to predict for the city of Denver a city-scale map indicating road safety in three levels. Compared to a map made from three years' worth of data collected by the Denver city Police Department, the map predicted from raw satellite imagery has an accuracy of 73%.
In many fields in computational sustainability, applications of POMDPs are inhibited by the complexity of the optimal solution. One way of delivering simple solutions is to represent the policy with a small number of alpha-vectors. We would like to find the best possible policy that can be expressed using a fixed number N of alpha-vectors. We call this the N-POMDP problem. The existing solver alpha-min approximately solves finite-horizon POMDPs with a controllable number of alpha-vectors. However alpha-min is a greedy algorithm without performance guarantees, and it is rather slow. This paper proposes three new algorithms, based on a general approach that we call alpha-min-2. These three algorithms are able to approximately solve N-POMDPs. Alpha-min-2-fast (heuristic) and alpha-min-2-p (with performance guarantees) are designed to complement an existing POMDP solver, while alpha-min-2-solve (heuristic) is a solver itself. Complexity results are provided for each of the algorithms, and they are tested on well-known benchmarks. These new algorithms will help users to interpret solutions to POMDP problems in computational sustainability.
The stochastic shortest path problem is of crucial importance for the development of sustainable transportation systems. Existing methods based on the probability tail model seek for the path that maximizes the probability of arriving at the destination before a deadline. However, they suffer from low accuracy and/or high computational cost. We design a novel Q-learning method where the converged Q-values have the practical meaning as the actual probabilities of arriving on time so as to improve accuracy. By further adopting dynamic neural networks to learn the value function, our method can scale well to large road networks with arbitrary deadlines. Experimental results on real road networks demonstrate the significant advantages of our method over other counterparts.
Sustainable energy policies are of growing importance in all urban centers.Climate — and climate change — will play increasingly important roles in these policies.Climate zones defined by the California Energy Commissionhave long been influential in energy management.For example, recently a two-zone division of Los Angeles(defined by historical temperature averages) was introduced for electricity rate restructuring.The importance of climate zones has been enormous,and climate change could make them still more important. AI can provide improvements on the ways climate zones are derived and managed.This paper reports on analysis of aggregate household electricity consumption (EC) data from local utilities in Los Angeles,seeking possible improvements in energy management. In this analysis we noticed that EC data permits identificationof interesting geographical zones — regions having EC patterns that are characteristically different from surrounding regions.We believe these zones could be useful in a variety of urban models.
Agricultural monitoring, especially in developing countries, can help prevent famine and support humanitarian efforts. A central challenge is yield estimation, i.e., predicting crop yields before harvest. We introduce a scalable, accurate, and inexpensive method to predict crop yields using publicly available remote sensing data. Our approach improves existing techniques in three ways. First, we forego hand-crafted features traditionally used in the remote sensing community and propose an approach based on modern representation learning ideas. We also introduce a novel dimensionality reduction technique that allows us to train a Convolutional Neural Network or Long-short Term Memory network and automatically learn useful features even when labeled training data are scarce. Finally, we incorporate a Gaussian Process component to explicitly model the spatio-temporal structure of the data and further improve accuracy. We evaluate our approach on county-level soybean yield prediction in the U.S. and show that it outperforms competing techniques.
Adaptive management is applied in conservation and natural resource management, and consists of making sequential decisions when the transition matrix is uncertain. Informally described as ’learning by doing’, this approach aims to trade off between decisions that help achieve the objective and decisions that will yield a better knowledge of the true transition matrix. When the true transition matrix is assumed to be an element of a finite set of possible matrices, solving a mixed observability Markov decision process (MOMDP) leads to an optimal trade-off but is very computationally demanding. Under the assumption (common in adaptive management) that the true transition matrix is stationary, we propose a polynomial-time algorithm to find a lower bound of the value function. In the corners of the domain of the value function (belief space), this lower bound is provably equal to the optimal value function. We also show that under further assumptions, it is a linear approximation of the optimal value function in a neighborhood around the corners. We evaluate the benefits of our approach by using it to initialize the solvers MO-SARSOP and Perseus on a novel computational sustainability problem and a recent adaptive management data challenge. Our approach leads to an improved initial value function and translates into significant computational gains for both solvers.
Targeted socio-economic policies require an accurate understanding of a country’s demographic makeup. To that end, the United States spends more than 1 billion dollars a year gathering census data such as race, gender, education, occupation and unemployment rates. Compared to the traditional method of collecting surveys across many years which is costly and labor intensive, data-driven, machine learning-driven approaches are cheaper and faster—with the potential ability to detect trends in close to real time. In this work, we leverage the ubiquity of Google Street View images and develop a computer vision pipeline to predict income, per capita carbon emission, crime rates and other city attributes from a single source of publicly available visual data. We first detect cars in 50 million images across 200 of the largest US cities and train a model to predict demographic attributes using the detected cars. To facilitate our work, we have collected the largest and most challenging fine-grained dataset reported to date consisting of over 2600 classes of cars comprised of images from Google Street View and other web sources, classified by car experts to account for even the most subtle of visual differences. We use this data to construct the largest scale fine-grained detection system reported to date. Our prediction results correlate well with ground truth income data (r=0.82), Massachusetts department of vehicle registration, and sources investigating crime rates, income segregation, per capita carbon emission, and other market research. Finally, we learn interesting relationships between cars and neighborhoods allowing us to perform the first large scale sociological analysis of cities using computer vision techniques.
Maintaining landscape connectivity is increasingly important in wildlife conservation, especially for species experiencing the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. We propose a novel approach to dynamically optimize landscape connectivity. Our approach is based on a mixed integer program formulation, embedding a spatial capture-recapture model that estimates the density, space usage, and landscape connectivity for a given species. Our method takes into account the fact that local animal density and connectivity change dynamically and non-linearly with different habitat protection plans. In order to scale up our encoding, we propose a sampling scheme via random partitioning of the search space using parity functions. We show that our method scales to real-world size problems and dramatically outperforms the solution quality of an expectation maximization approach and a sample average approximation approach.
Stochastic network design is a general framework for optimizing network connectivity. It has several applications in computational sustainability including spatial conservation planning, pre-disaster network preparation, and river network optimization. A common assumption in previous work has been made that network parameters (e.g., probability of species colonization) are precisely known, which is unrealistic in real- world settings. We therefore address the robust river network design problem where the goal is to optimize river connectivity for fish movement by removing barriers. We assume that fish passability probabilities are known only imprecisely, but are within some interval bounds. We then develop a planning approach that computes the policies with either high robust ratio or low regret. Empirically, our approach scales well to large river networks. We also provide insights into the solutions generated by our robust approach, which has significantly higher robust ratio than the baseline solution with mean parameter estimates.
Species distribution models relate the geographic occurrence pattern of a species to environmental features and are used for a variety of scientific and management purposes. One source of data for building species distribution models is citizen science, in which volunteers report locations where they observed (or did not observe) sets of species. Since volunteers have variable levels of expertise, citizen science data may contain both false positives and false negatives in the location labels (present vs. absent) they provide, but many common modeling approaches for this task do not address these sources of noise explicitly. In this paper, we propose to formulate the species distribution modeling task as a classification problem with class-conditional noise. Our approach builds on other applications of class-conditional noise models to crowdsourced data, but we focus on leveraging features of the noise processes that are distinct from the class features. We describe the conditions under which the parameters of our proposed model are identifiable and apply it to simulated data and data from the eBird citizen science project.
Modern society is increasingly reliant on the functionality of infrastructure facilities and utility services. Consequently, there has been surge of interest in the problem of quantification of system reliability, which is known to be #P-complete. Reliability also contributes to the resilience of systems, so as to effectively make them bounce back after contingencies. Despite diverse progress, most techniques to estimate system reliability and resilience remain computationally expensive. In this paper, we investigate how recent advances in hashing-based approaches to counting can be exploited to improve computational techniques for system reliability.The primary contribution of this paper is a novel framework, RelNet, that reduces the problem of computing reliability for a given network to counting the number of satisfying assignments of a Σ11 formula, which is amenable to recent hashing-based techniques developed for counting satisfying assignments of SAT formula. We then apply RelNet to ten real world power-transmission grids across different cities in the U.S. and are able to obtain, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretically sound a priori estimates of reliability between several pairs of nodes of interest. Such estimates will help managing uncertainty and support rational decision making for community resilience.
Homes constitute more than one-thirds of the total energy consumption. Producing an energy breakdown for a home has been shown to reduce household energy consumption by up to 15%, among other benefits. However, existing approaches to produce an energy breakdown require hardware to be installed in each home and are thus prohibitively expensive. In this paper, we propose a novel application of feature-based matrix factorisation that does not require any additional hard- ware installation. The basic premise of our approach is that common design and construction patterns for homes create a repeating structure in their energy data. Thus, a sparse basis can be used to represent energy data from a broad range of homes. We evaluate our approach on 516 homes from a publicly available data set and find it to be more effective than five baseline approaches that either require sensing in each home, or a very rigorous survey across a large number of homes coupled with complex modelling. We also present a deployment of our system as a live web application that can potentially provide energy breakdown to millions of homes.
Future projection of climate is typically obtained by combining outputs from multiple Earth System Models (ESMs) for several climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. While IPCC has traditionally used a simple model output average, recent work has illustrated potential advantages of using a multitask learning (MTL) framework for projections of individual climate variables. In this paper we introduce a framework for hierarchical multitask learning (HMTL) with two levels of tasks such that each super-task, i.e., task at the top level, is itself a multitask learning problem over sub-tasks. For climate projections, each super-task focuses on projections of specific climate variables spatially using an MTL formulation. For the proposed HMTL approach, a group lasso regularization is added to couple parameters across the super-tasks, which in the climate context helps exploit relationships among the behavior of different climate variables at a given spatial location. We show that some recent works on MTL based on learning task dependency structures can be viewed as special cases of HMTL. Experiments on synthetic and real climate data show that HMTL produces better results than decoupled MTL methods applied separately on the super-tasks and HMTL significantly outperforms baselines for climate projection.